• 1. Teams at the top of the NBA tend to have much better close out ability than average or below teams. If a top 10 team goes up against a lower ranked team with a PR (Power Ranking) difference of 10 or more, they are typically the safest triggers.
  • 2. Conversely average/below-average teams (even if they are against an equally bad team) are still capable of falling apart. The trigger occurs at a peak in the probabilities. Watch the game and wait for odds that are more profitable
  • 3. Power Rankings are good not great. If a star player is out (see #6) or a certain team is on a big win streak, chances are that won't be reflected in the PR. We've added some extra stats to help you make this evaluation (L10, how the team plays when they are home vs away). It's left to you to make the mental adjustments to keep these factors into account
  • 4. Don't use the probabilities outside of the threshold. It's been well researched and everything else really hasn't. 76%, 66% are not meaningful signals in our strategy. Our recommendation is 83%. Once it hits 83 it's a BQ endorsed bet (even if it dips below later) although keeps these 10 things in mind. If you'd like to construct your own around them try it out, it seriously might work. We just don't know
  • 5. The 3rd quarter always has big swings. If a model fires, the odds may still be there later on, you don't have to take it right away. Keep an eye on that game and when the odds look good go for it. Let it play out as much as you can. 
  • 6. Injuries
    Pre-Game: Check if a star player is out before making a bet. It will affect the accuracy of the power rankings
    In-game injuries. You can use the Yahoo Sports app to track tweets about the game. If you want to be extra cautious, check those to see if there are any in-game injuries. They're pretty rare though so use that info how you will. 
  • 7. Latency. Yes BallQuant is a bit behind. However that shouldn't cramp your style. When a game is greenlit you may not want to take it instantly anyway. Watch the probabilities in the app, and pick your moment. Timing is everything and it's where you can take a good return to a great one. 
  • 8. Last 5 Minutes. BQ DOES NOT update probabilities in the last 5 minutes of the game or in OT
  • 9. What betting site should I use? Pinnacle has the best odds but can be frustrating on mobile, if you're planning on betting on the go, bet365 has the best mobile experience. They're both only accessible via a browser but if you use chrome on your phone you can pin them to your screen so that they act just like an app you can click on. There's a guide at the bottom of this email for how exactly to do that
  • 10. Have fun and make some money folks
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