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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +7.4% · edge +2.2 pts · stake 41.65
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 19.7% vs market 17.5% on DRAW @ 5.45 -> EV 7.4%, edge 2.2pts | stake 41.65 (0.42% bankroll, kelly 1.7%)
The math live · Draw @ 5.45
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 19.7%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 17.5%
- Edge
- +2.2 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 5.45
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 5.71
- Price implies
- 18.3%
- Expected value
- +7.4%
- Full Kelly
- 1.7%
- Books surveyed
- 22
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 42 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits227returned
Profit+185on win
Expected+3per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 22 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Tunisia | Draw | Netherlands | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.7%% | ||||
| 2.4%% | ||||
| 2.4%% | ||||
| 2.8%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.8%% | ||||
| 5.3%% | ||||
| 5.6%% | ||||
| 5.7%% | ||||
| 6.2%% | ||||
| 6.8%% | ||||
| 7.3%% | ||||
| 8.0%% | ||||
| 8.3%% | ||||
| 8.9%% | ||||
| 14.6%% | ||||
| 18.8%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 11.50 | 6.00 | 1.35 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 10.06 | 5.71 | 1.38 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 9.54 | 5.45 | 1.30 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748928 — view on Solscan ↗fa38bed62dba6ad67a90e5…