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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +10.5% · edge +2.8 pts · stake 71.26
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 23.5% vs market 20.7% on DRAW @ 4.70 -> EV 10.5%, edge 2.8pts | stake 71.26 (0.71% bankroll, kelly 2.9%)
The math live · Draw @ 4.70
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 23.5%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 20.7%
- Edge
- +2.8 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 4.70
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 4.83
- Price implies
- 21.3%
- Expected value
- +10.5%
- Full Kelly
- 2.9%
- Books surveyed
- 25
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 71 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits335returned
Profit+264on win
Expected+8per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 25 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Germany | Draw | Ivory Coast | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6%% | ||||
| 0.6%% | ||||
| 1.8%% | ||||
| 2.2%% | ||||
| 2.3%% | ||||
| 2.9%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.7%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 3.9%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.7%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.8%% | ||||
| 5.9%% | ||||
| 7.9%% | ||||
| 8.7%% | ||||
| 11.2%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 4.00 | 4.80 | 10.75 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 1.58 | 4.83 | 6.29 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 1.53 | 4.70 | 6.00 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748911 — view on Solscan ↗9fd3269f72418fe6620c1b…