Back to dashboard
VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +10.7% · edge +2.9 pts · stake 65.58
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 21.8% vs market 18.9% on DRAW @ 5.07 -> EV 10.7%, edge 2.9pts | stake 65.58 (0.66% bankroll, kelly 2.6%)
The math live · Draw @ 5.07
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 21.8%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 18.9%
- Edge
- +2.9 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 5.07
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 5.29
- Price implies
- 19.7%
- Expected value
- +10.7%
- Full Kelly
- 2.6%
- Books surveyed
- 24
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 66 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits333returned
Profit+267on win
Expected+7per bet, long run
Loading your saved picks…
Bookmaker odds 24 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Scotland | Draw | Brazil | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0%% | ||||
| 1.0%% | ||||
| 1.4%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.5%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 4.0%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 4.4%% | ||||
| 4.6%% | ||||
| 4.6%% | ||||
| 4.6%% | ||||
| 4.6%% | ||||
| 4.8%% | ||||
| 4.9%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 5.9%% | ||||
| 7.3%% | ||||
| 8.6%% | ||||
| 8.6%% | ||||
| 12.9%% | ||||
| 18.0%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 8.80 | 5.53 | 1.42 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 8.20 | 5.29 | 1.45 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 7.90 | 5.07 | 1.38 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748923 — view on Solscan ↗96efc30e1347a76f517c74…