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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +14.5% · edge +3.6 pts · stake 82.22
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 21.2% vs market 17.6% on DRAW @ 5.40 -> EV 14.5%, edge 3.6pts | stake 82.22 (0.82% bankroll, kelly 3.3%)
The math live · Draw @ 5.40
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 21.2%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 17.6%
- Edge
- +3.6 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 5.40
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 5.68
- Price implies
- 18.5%
- Expected value
- +14.5%
- Full Kelly
- 3.3%
- Books surveyed
- 21
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 82 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits444returned
Profit+362on win
Expected+12per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 21 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Senegal | Draw | Iraq | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.3%% | ||||
| 1.7%% | ||||
| 2.6%% | ||||
| 3.1%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 3.6%% | ||||
| 4.2%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.0%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.4%% | ||||
| 6.0%% | ||||
| 6.9%% | ||||
| 7.6%% | ||||
| 7.9%% | ||||
| 8.3%% | ||||
| 8.4%% | ||||
| 14.4%% | ||||
| 18.7%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 1.37 | 5.80 | 12.25 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 1.37 | 5.68 | 10.85 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 1.30 | 5.40 | 10.25 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748933 — view on Solscan ↗d337f8305cbb12b89a7ff4…