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VS
Bot is bullish on Draw. EV +12.4% · edge +3.4 pts · stake 83.92
Model vs market
Tap a row to price that outcome →
model 23.9% vs market 20.5% on DRAW @ 4.70 -> EV 12.4%, edge 3.4pts | stake 83.92 (0.84% bankroll, kelly 3.4%)
The math live · Draw @ 4.70
- Pick
- Draw
- Model probability
- 23.9%
- Market (de-vigged)
- 20.5%
- Edge
- +3.4 pts
- Bet price (Median book)
- 4.70
- Fair odds (no vig)
- 4.87
- Price implies
- 21.3%
- Expected value
- +12.4%
- Full Kelly
- 3.4%
- Books surveyed
- 25
Your bet ✓ positive EV
Risk · 25% Kellysuggested 84 units
Priceor pick a book in the table ↓
If Draw hits394returned
Profit+311on win
Expected+10per bet, long run
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Bookmaker odds 25 books · click a price to bet there · click a header to sort
| Bookmaker | Belgium | Draw | Iran | Margin ▲ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.8%% | ||||
| 0.8%% | ||||
| 1.5%% | ||||
| 2.4%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.0%% | ||||
| 3.4%% | ||||
| 3.7%% | ||||
| 3.8%% | ||||
| 3.9%% | ||||
| 4.1%% | ||||
| 4.5%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.1%% | ||||
| 5.2%% | ||||
| 5.3%% | ||||
| 5.5%% | ||||
| 5.8%% | ||||
| 6.5%% | ||||
| 6.5%% | ||||
| 6.5%% | ||||
| 6.8%% | ||||
| 7.2%% | ||||
| 10.6%% | ||||
| Best price (highest odds) | 1.48 | 4.80 | 8.50 | — |
| Fair odds (no vig) | 1.50 | 4.87 | 7.90 | — |
| You bet at (median) | 1.43 | 4.70 | 7.60 | — |
What's real vs what's a guess
- Real: de-vigged live odds, the model's probability, the on-chain signature, the final score.
- A guess: the edge itself — our backtested CLV is negative, so treat this as research, not a tip.
- Paper / testnet — no real money is staked.
On-chain proof
committed hash
✓ Signed on Solana · slot 470748914 — view on Solscan ↗cd6848654b287e1b6a8a06…